The second weekend of a blockbuster is almost as telling as the first, in terms of its “legs” — its ability to sell tickets for a month or more.
A good “hold” — the lower the percentage of ticket sales fall-off from week one, the better. A 50% or less drop is good to great — Pixar numbers. Anything over 60% means word of mouth isn’t helping, repeat business isn’t happening.
“Bad Boys for Life” had a huge opening weekend,$62.5 million over three days,with a big Martin Luther King Day turnout the following Monday. It is on track to do $33 million on its second weekend, as of Friday night. That’s a not-good/not-disastrous 62%+ falloff.
That huge opening weekend will push it over $119 million, all-in, by Sunday.
“1917” is losing only 35% of its turnout, weekend to weekend. It’ll earn $15 million+ this weekend, and should continue to sell tickets up through the Oscars. It will clear $100 million today (Saturday) and be over $103 by midnight Sunday.
The two wide releases opening this weekend are seeing widely differing turnout.
Guy Ritchie’s return to gangstering, “The Gentlemen,” is on pace to clear $10 million, maybe a little more, by midnight Sunday. Mixed reviews for that one. Very guy-oriented, a little Sinophobic (Gangsters are racists. Go figure.), entirely too chatty, I thought. Slow. In the parlance of Ritchie-speak, “a Brexiting geezer’s movie, it is.”
The other new title, “The Turning,” shows that people who avoid Henry James novels in school aren’t going to show up for a horror movie based on one in the theaters — again. The oft-filmed “Turning of the Screw” earned poor reviews and will have tallied only $6-7 million by midnight Sunday.
“Little Women” and “Knives Out” and “Just Mercy” are still in the top ten. Imagine how well “Just Mercy” would have done had they opened it early enough to tally a few Oscar nominations.