Way back in ancient times, “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” set the opening weekend and second weekend box office records which generations — Ok, not generations — have held to be dear and unbreakable.
With “Avengers: Endgame” wiping out the records with a $357 million opening last weekend, might the second weekend record — $149 million for “Awakens” — also tumble?
Box Office Mojo certainly seems to think so, predicting a 57% week-to-week drop and a $154 million second weekend. Brad Brevet with Mojo notes that there’s more repeat business on this “Avengers” than there was for “Infinity War,” and bases the estimate on that.
Guessing whether everybody who has wanted to see this pretty much has, and how many of them will want to spend another three hours with this story seems more difficult to gauge (for me, anyway) than the opening weekend. And the opening weekend EVERYbody underestimated what “Endgame” would do.
So any guess between $100 million and $200 million, which is where Variety is hedging, seems reasonable. After that epic opening, and clearing $30 million a day all week, anything less than the record would be a sign that the audience has had its fill, anything under $125 million would put an exclamation point on that.
And it could easily, considering the number of screens it is on, manage $200 and break the old record by as many miles as it beat the opening weekend record.
“Long Shot,” the Charlize Theron/Seth Rogen R-rated rom(sex) com, got decent reviews (not from me, meh) and should open in the teens — $12 million says Mojo, $9-16 fudges Variety.
“UglyDolls,” based on the toy line, is from first-time animation distributor STX, which usually goes for action pics. It’s a dull affair aimed at tiny tukes, but the tunes are good and it’s on a lot of screens and fills a void in the kiddie corner, so Variety’s $12-16 projection seems, well, low. I think high teens, maybe even $20.
Mojo goes even lower on that one, thinking it’ll manage $10.
The non-supernatural thriller “The Intruder” could be in that same range, even without a marketable cast (Meagan Good, Michael Ealy, Dennis Quaid). Predictions are ranging $9-16, and I’ll opt for the higher end of that.
“El Chicano” is opening on enough screens (605) to crack the top ten, though nobody is predicting that.