Weekend box office: How much will “Pain” gain?

It’s got three stars, two of them “box office,” and a stellar supporting cast. The commercials are giving the comic side of “Pain & Gain” the hard sell.

But as this movie, earning mixed reviews, will reveal to anybody who buys a ticket — it’s a very violent “true crime” action comedy. And that could work against word of mouth.

Box Office Guru is thinking Michael Bay’s cheapest movie since film school will do $20 million.

Box Office Mojo figures “Pain & Gain” will do a “modest” $22 million or so. “The Big Wedding” will be lucky to crack $10, the soothsayer there says. The Guru figures $9 will be that all-star comedy’s high water mark.

It’s a pretty foul-mouthed R-rated comedy aimed squarely at the”Something’s Got to Give/Big Fat Greek Wedding” audience. Will they show up? I see this one as a wild card that could do better than $10,and I’m not saying that because I gave it the only passing review I’ve seen posted anywhere.

Are old folks ready for a hint of “Hangover” in their rom-coms? If so, this could be a watershed picture– Oscar winners and other big names, nobody stretching that much, but playing well within the audience’s comfort zone and talking dirty as they do.

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The Jackie Robinson bio-pic “42” will clear the $70 million mark by Sunday night. “Oblivion” should fall off a bit — maybe a lot. Figure it’ll come in a close second to “Pain & Gain,” unless one doesn’t open or the other doesn’t hold at least half its audience.

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