BOX OFFICE: Will “Venom” hit $60, “Star is Born” $40 million?

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The common refrain from all the filmgoer comments directed my way about “Venom” has been “I could see it was bad, just from the trailer.”

As a film’s trailer is comprised of its best, most audience-enticing moments, that’s a fair shot. The best Sony’s Marvel movie has been able to drum up is a shrug from most folks.

Reviews have been mostly bad.

But it’s still supposedly going to open HUGE. Deadline.com is saying “others” are hinting it could go to $70, but $60 seems safer. That’s a CYA attempt on Deadline’s part.

Box Office Guru is betting low and I’m with him. Maybe $46 million.

It could open in “Ant-Man” territory — upper $50s — or in the realm of Tom Hardy’s “Mad Max: Fury Road” (mid-40s), Box Office Mojo opines. Then the site sticks its neck out and says $60 million.

As the movies everybody is comparing its chances to earned GOOD reviews, it could be they’re inflating the expected take in the hopes of smearing egg on Sony’s face.

Lady Gaga fans have been trolling “Venom” in the hopes of creating a depressed box office and a real horse race, with the longer, better reviewed “A Star is Born,” a date movie that should make money into November or award’s season, depending on how its buzz fares.

Mojo and Deadline.com are figuring the critically-boosted and all-media hyped “Star” will hit the low $40s. Box Office Guru is lowballing that one, too — $36.

THURSDAY’S take put “Venom” at $7 million, a strong is not epic start to the weekend. “A Star is Born” managed $2.5, and stuffed “preview” showings in on Tuesday and Wed. nights as well. (Warner Brothers is winning the fall marketing wars with this one).

“Venom” is on so many screens (4250) that it should win the weekend easily, but we will see what we see. “A Star is Born” is the one that’s selling out early showings on Fandango.com. I’m guessing the $45 for and up predictions are on the mark. And if “Venom” only manages the $45-50 that quality and pre-release attention suggest, the Gaga Monsters may have their way.

 

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