One of the rules of thumb concerning box office prognostication is the way movies for kids are consistently under-estimated. You just never know how many parents are anxious enough to get the children out of the house and make an impulse trek to the cinema.
And whatever tally is gathered Friday, Deadline.com is always ALWAYS sure to under-guess on what Saturday will be for a kids’ film.
“The House with a Clock in its Walls” has been pegged as a mid-$20s opening weekend “hit” (it cost mid-$40s, all of the money going to effects and the two adult leads). A BIG Saturday now tells us that $27 million is within its reach (Kiddie movie Sundays are usually better than the norm, too).
Even Box Office Mojo was thinking “$23” after a middling Thursday night and Friday performance.
“Life Itself,” opening just as wide, will not earn $2 million, or barely hit that disastrous mark. Heads should be rolling at Amazon Studios and their outsourced Three Blind Mice marketing for this one.
Deadline.com thinks “Fahrenheit 11/9” should have opened in a platform release, which makes more sense than throwing an unmarketed, underpromoted and mislabeled (“Michael Moore’s Trump Movie”) doc into 1700+ theaters. I’d agree. Doing talk shows alone isn’t going to get the word out, and this thing isn’t managing $3 million, maybe a tad more.
Neon should never have released “Assassination Nation” as wide either. It’s a one or two screens per market “specialty house” picture with limited appeal and exploitation potential. It’s going to make everything it was ever going to make this weekend, and they’ll have spent all this money putting it on all those screens all at once, and that’s money wasted. I saw it with one other soul on Saturday afternoon in Orlando. Not bad, but not everybody’s cup of B-.ot bad, but not everybody’s cup of B negative.
“A Simple Favor” is holding audience and looking like a picture built for the long run. Finally nudged past “The Nun” ($100 million+ by midnight) and “Predator” (close to $40 by midnight). “Favor” will be in the mid $30s when the weekend is done.