BOX OFFICE: “Ant Man and the Wasp” projections plummet, “Purge” might hit $35

box1Deadline.com, one of the places I go for Box Office projections and updates — has been steadily walking back its “EXCLUSIVES” about what “Ant Man and the Wasp” was going to pull in this weekend.

The fourth Marvel release this year “might hit $120, 130,” was the call last weekend, early this week.

Thursday, that dropped to “$94-100.” Then $88.

Now, “$81 million” is their very bestest “exclusive” projection, based on a good Thursday and a less than overwhelming Friday. That’s a nice uptick from 2015’s “Ant Man.” But a seriously plummet in what was almost certainly Disney/Marvel’s high flying expectations, based on everything else they’ve thrown against the way this wall this year.

They’re walking expectations backward on this so fast you’d swear it was an Olympic event.

ant2“Ant Man and The Wasp” is shaping up as Marvel’s “Solo,” a sort of humbling sidebar the march to total Marvel box office dominance. It’ll open far less than “record breaking,” and die a quicker than expected death. My “exclusive.”

“The First Purge” is pulling in fans and over-performing. A decent Tuesday night, big Wed. and solid Thursday have this blackspoilation installment in the political satire splatter/slasher film series looking at clearing $30, maybe hitting $35 by midnight Sunday. It cost $13, so understandably, Universal and the production team are on a champagne bender (or should be) with that news.

That should soften the blow that the steep fall-off in interest in “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom” engenders. “Incredibles 2” passed it late week, and stands to edge the dinosaurs this weekend, even though “Incredibles” have been in theaters a week longer.

“Sicario 2” is taking a 50% hit, “Uncle Drew” a 60% plus one.

“Deadpool 2” is winding up its Top Ten run short of $325, “Tag” is about to clear $50, “Ocean’s 8” won’t reach $150 (not bad, $135 all-in, I figure, in a week or two).

And “Won’t You Be My Neighbor” added hundreds of screens and will crack the top ten. See it if you’re suffering from blockbuster fatigue. 

 

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4 Responses to BOX OFFICE: “Ant Man and the Wasp” projections plummet, “Purge” might hit $35

  1. Andre bailey says:

    The tracking for ant man was never 120, 130. The initial tracking was 75 million, its gone up in the last few days. Actually check your facts beforehand posting them.
    Don’t believe me look at the ant man box office projections articles from day and months ago

    • You are mistaken. Plenty of tracking folks were saying “as high as $130.” First hard projections late Thursday night said “$94-96.” Etc. Unlike you, I’m not pulling numbers out of my butt.

  2. Tobias Egan says:

    Studio estimates for ant man were always 70-77m with 85m in a highly optimistic scenario (month and weeks prior to release). Outside sources, most prominently box office pro, never pegged the movie above 85m in long range tracking. After the 11.5 Thursday projections increased to 85-95. 120-130? What the hell haha. That was never once provided as an estimate by any reasonable source (can’t even find an unreliable source that pegged this movie so high). That would be tracking above Thor 3, Spider-Man HC, Justice league and Wonder Woman. This is a very weird opinion article…… it seems like youre mad about something lol

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