It’s Oscar weekend, and no, none of the Oscar contenders expects to be in the top five when the dust has settled on all the moviegoing this Feb. 22-24.
Will “Identity Thief” have enough oomph to clear the finish line in first? Box Office Mojo thinks so. They’re calling it the winner, in its third weekend of release, and with no new comedies to suck audience away from it, a $13 million weekend seems within reach.
The Mojo call on the rest of the field has “A Good Day to Die Hard” beating “Snitch” and “Safe Haven” and “Escape from Planet Earth” in a crowd packed into that $10-12 million range.
Dwayne Johnson’s been hard-pressed to open a movie of late. A $12 million weekend would be a win, in this case. “Safe Haven” may have drawn every Nicholas Sparks fan it could hope to, so anything over $10 likewise would be a win.
The laughless “Escape from Planet Earth” has no competition in the kids’ picture field, so another $10 million is entirely possible.
The Box Office Guru thinks that “A Good Day to Die Hard” will fall far enough for this to be a real race — with “Snitch,” “Die Hard,” “Safe Haven” and “Dark Skies” all clustered around that $10-12 million range.
“Dark Skies” is, as Variety puts it, “tracking lightly.” Low awareness, a PG-13 horror picture with kids. They’re hoping for “Insidious” or “Mama” numbers, but $10 million may be a stretch.
I’d also guess that “Identity Thief” has the measure of this field. Melissa McCarthy is BO gold at this point, and this has “Stick around like “Bridesmaids” possibilities.
But I hope the superior “Snitch” does well enough to encourage more thoughtful action dramas like it, and that it clobbers “Die Hard.” I still enjoy Bruce, but nobody was even trying this time around.