Box Office Prognosis — Will “Guardians” make true Marvel Money?

groot“Guardians of the Galaxy” arrives at the end of a summer overloaded with comic book franchises and science fiction franchises and fantasies that could be franchises.

So if you’re looking for a reason that the box office has skidded to numbers well below previous years — a STEEP drop-off — that might be one of the best places to place the blame. Overfamiliarity. Comic book fatigue. Tired of “Transformers,” kind of over the “Apes.”

Not that those films didn’t make their money, but none of them have had any staying power.

“Guardians” won’t be burdened with that. It’s opening in August, so theoretically, it’ll make its money in three weeks and fade from the scene as fall begins.

But it’s opening on 4000 screens. Disney has marketed the daylights out of it. The reviews have been “Captain America” good, if not “Avengers” glowing.

My best buzz indicator — simple spikes in traffic on this blog for trailers, and the review, suggest it should do well.

How well? $50 million would be at the low end of expectations. $85 would be almost “Avengers” sized. I figure $70 or so is reasonable, $100 would shock me. I was at a screening at a popular Disney World multiplex last night, and while there were lines waiting for the first showings of it, they weren’t “Twilight” or “Avengers” length lines.

Box Office Mojo figures low $80s.

Box Office Guru guesses $72, but he’s under the impression it only opens on 3,800 screens.

“Get on Up,” the best film going into wide release this weekend, could have been held for awards season, but every now and then, an August movie wins an Oscar. Chadwick Boseman’s performance stands out, as does the film, in these dog days of summer cinema season.

The Guru and Box Office Mojo both think this will better “Jersey Boys” numbers, and do $15-16.

“Lucy” should finish second, losing a lot of audience to “Guardians.” “Hercules” will lose just as much, if not more.

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