“Thor, the Dark World” should lose 50-60% of its opening weekend audience on this, its second week of release. That means it could do $33-40 million. Anything less than that suggests that perhaps audiences weren’t keen on the similarities between the first film and the second — same story beats, etc. Word of mouth will tell.
Universal is banking on the 14 years of memories of “The Best Man,” a black college pals gathered for a wedding dramedy that did OK in theaters in 1999, much better on DVD and other forms of home video in the years since, to boost “The Best Man Holiday.”
Variety says the sequel is tracking best with black females over 25, which points to a “Jump the Broom” opening (@$20 million).
And since reviews were actually pretty good for this overlong, occasionally maudlin romp — the cast makes it — it could do over $20 million, maybe WAY over $20 million. It should, by rights, do Tyler Perry ten years ago numbers ($30+). But $24 seems the safe prediction.
Having seen it with an audience, I know that movie PLAYS. So if word of mouth is any help, and audiences outside of the black demographic that made the first film a hit take an interest (As a book agent played by Michael Higgins cracks in the movie, “It’s not just ‘Black smart.’ SMART.”), it could do well.
The Box Office Guru thinks “Thor” will add about $38 million to its total and that “Best Man” won’t hit $20.
“The Book Thief” rolls into a few more markets this weekend. It has strong per-screen numbers and middling reviews going for it.
“Nebraska” goes into limited release. And “Charlie Countryman,” a half-decent Shia LaBeouf thriller set in Romania, sees the light of day in a few cities.