That’s what the prognosticators says. The latest femme-friendly YA (young adult) action film in the “Hunger Games” mold will do do Katniss-sized business, at least on its opening weekend.
“Divergent” is a pre-ordained franchise. There appears to be nothing in the studio’s playbook that says it will fail, so they’re already prepared to to do the other films in the series — “Insurgent,” “Indulgent,” “Indifferent,” I forget the titles.
Box Office Mojo says “Divergent” will skip past weak reviews and do a boffo $53 million or so this weekend — 3D, lots of screens, spring break for a lot of the 12-18 year old girl target audience.
Box Office Guru agrees — well over $50 million.
The Hollywood Reporter figures those numbers are low. High interest, lots of hype, new book series (apparently commissioned to be a formula cut and paste job JUST like “Hunger Games”), THR says $60 million by midnight Sunday.
I am wondering if those numbers, tracking and research based, aren’t high. Reviews and Katniss loyalty could tamp down interest, big time. “The Host” and other pretenders to this audience bombed. I’m thinking below $40.
Nobody is thinking “Muppets Most Wanted”, funny as it is, with much better reviews, will connect with kids too young to have any memories of anything older than the last film in this series. Will it clear $20? Mojo thinks “no.” Mid-20s guesses “Guru.” I think low $20s.
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” opens wider this weekend, so expect it to bump further up the top ten ladder. Maybe. There’s a crowded top ten ahead of it, and last weekend’s movies will slide, but not all the way out of the list.
