How big will Spider-Man’s box office “Homecoming” be?

spider1It’s a proven brand, which is why Sony and Marvel keep coming back to “Spider-Man.” Three different incarnations of the franchise in 15 years? He’s Wolverine, with a paper-boy-next-door appeal, no matter who is playing the spider-bitten webslinger this time around.

Reviews have been generally good. It earned a 73 on the nuanced, fine-graded metacritic scale, and “Citizen Kane” marks on the “rotten or not” simpler Rottentomatoes system. I’m not much of a fan, but I’m in the minority, though not as small a minority as the fanboys would like.

But how much will the Tom Holland/no-name-director “Spider-Man: Homecoming” earn on this, it’s opening weekend? Hitting 4400 screens at once, not so long that it’ll limit the number of screenings each day (though 2:22 is pushing it).

Box Office Mojo is predicting a robust post-July 4 $110 million opening.

The Box Office Guru is figuring $102 million, when the last showing Sunday night has been tallied. Word of mouth probably won’t hurt it, as audiences are being given something a little different — no “origin” story this time. And as summer movies are calculated thrill rides, the big effect scenes should play — even if most of them are just like every other comic book movie’s action beats.

But with most of the summer’s other over-sequeled franchises under-performing, one does wonder if these predictions aren’t setting the bar too high. Is there pent up demand for more Robert Downey Jr., a new Spidey (again) and Michael Keaton as a genuinely scary small-business owner/arms dealer/Vulture bad guy? We’ll see.

“Baby Driver” is figure will hold a lot of audience, even if “Homecoming” sucks most of the oxygen out of the cinemas.
“Beguiled” could call out of the top ten. “The Big Sick” is opening somewhat wider and could cash in as alternative programming.

 

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