Oscar time, and time to place your bets?

3--lavona-golden-allison-janney-and-her-pet-bird-in-i-tonya-courtesy-of-neonIf you really REALLY believe that old Oscar truism, “Best Directors direct Best Pictures,” this might be a good time to put your money where that belief is.

Because even though writer-director Martin McDonagh was ROBBED and not nominated as best director for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” the early SMART Money odds say that this awards season favorite will continue its march toward winning the big prize Oscar night.

 Sportsbettingdime.com is giving 2-1 odds on “Billboards” collecting Best Picture, with “The Shape of Water,” which collected the most nominations (13) Tuesday, just a 3-1 favorite to win.

That smells like money in the bank, movie-bettors. Maybe you feel like a long shot. That would be “Phantom Thread,” the longest shot of all (300-1) as Best Picture. Paul Thomas Anderson is a nominated director (49-1, don’t be a sucker), so take that into your “best director/best picture” figuring.

I think “Dunkirk” was the best and certainly the best DIRECTED picture of 2017. But Guillermo del Toro has cleaned up in the pre-Oscar awards and seems like a lock (A pity, as the movie ain’t all that). GDT has 9/11 odds of winning, according to sportsbettingdime’s Trevor Dueck. Nolan? He can only get 3/1, with “Lady Bird” director Greta Gerwig a 23/2 bet.

Frances McDormand (1/3) is the best actress fave, with Gary Oldman (3/7) best actor favorite. Both have won lots of pre-Oscar awards for their “Three Billboards” and “Darkest Hour” performances, respectively.

willAllison Janney (1/1) and Laurie Metcalf (2/1) would be the safest bets for best supporting actress. Sam Rockwell (3/2) and Willem Dafoe (2/1) make best supporting actor another gambling crap shoot.

Everybody’s got an opinion about who should win, who WILL win, when the Oscars are handed out. Some of us are willing to put those opinions in writing. The next logical step? Put your money where your mouth is!

We won’t know who cashed in until the night of March 4, when the 90th Academy Awards are telecast on ABC.


About Roger Moore

Movie Critic, formerly with McClatchy-Tribune News Service, Orlando Sentinel, published in Spin Magazine, The World and now published here, Orlando Magazine, Autoweek Magazine
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2 Responses to Oscar time, and time to place your bets?

  1. Keith says:

    There seems to be very little suspense this year which is disappointing. Everything points to Janney, Rockwell, McDormand, and Oldman. Del Toro gets Director. Shape of Water and Three Billboards fight it out for Best Picture. Not crazy for either of those movies and would love to see a Dunkirk upset. Wishful thinking.

    • Same here, but ever since we started “tracking” how pre-Oscar awards went, the mystery has evaporated. All Hollywood’s efforts to render the awards less predictable have failed.

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