Gerard Butler, O’Shea Jackson, Jr. and Lionsgate are pulling off a wintry heist this weekend as “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera” may eek out a narrow box office win over “Mufasa,” not quite “The Lion King.”

Thursday night and Friday numbers point to a $15+ million weekend for the sequel to the 2018 hit which was released by start-up distributor STX. Lionsgate has the franchise, now, and as Deadline.com sees it, the film may give the studio its first weekend win since the “Hunger Games” reboot of a couple of years back.

But SoCal is burning. And a big storm has blanketed much of the country (five inches where I live in SoVa). Theater attendance will be dampened by both of those factors. And then there’s the fact that whatever the relatively few critics who reviewed “Thieves 2” say, it’s not “nicer, much nicer in Nice (France).” Slack, slow, underwhelming in most action ways — with streaming movie pacing — it kind of sucks.

“Mufasa” — a middling and pointless CGI back-story to a prized Disney IP, a cash grab release — is chugging along, slated to pull in another $11-12 million.

With “Thieves” and “Plane” and whatever other titles I’m forgetting, Gerard Butler has pretty much taken over the “Mr. January” title from action rival Mark Wahlberg, who had a run of early Jan. hits a few years back. But Marketing Mark has “Flight Risk” coming up, and that’s sure to draw.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” will rack up another $9 million or so, pushing this latest video game adaptation/sequel over the $200 million mark, domestically. It’s still leading “Mufasa,” but that $14 million gap between the two may close by month’s end.

The gorgeous “Nosferatu” won’t need Oscar nominations to cement its status as an A24 horror blockbuster. It is on track to add $7 million or so to A24’s coffers by weekend’s end, pushing it over the $80 million mark. Not bad for a gorily-updated 1922 silent film remake. It should win nominations for production design, if nothing else.

And Disney’s REAL smash of the season “Moana 2” winds up its run in the top five with another $4-5 million. It’s earned over double what “Mufasa” did, which sends Disney a message.

“Wicked” is rounding up another $4.5 million, which may allow it to edge its Oscar-bait rival “A Complete Unknown,” also slated to earn $4.5 million.

“Babygirl” hasn’t done much business, but another $2.9 million keeps it in the top ten.

The Indian thriller “Game Changer” has $1.5 million in its sights.

The Pamela Anderson “comeback” “The Last Showgirl” is riding decent reviews and a reasonably wide release to a $1.35 million opening, putting it in the Top Ten.

As my significant other and I sat in an empty cinema Thursday, watching the Robbie Williams/Ape as Pop Star biopic “Better Man,” the writing was on the wall. The humbling vanity project — a $110 million CGI pop biography/extravaganza — may break even abroad. But audiences here aren’t saying “Remember him?” They’re wondering “Robbie who?” On over 1200 North American screens, and the damned dirty ape won’t take in much more than $1 million. It won’t crack the top ten. Let’s hope he’s crying all the way to the Euro bank, as this gimmick pic isn’t making a dime in the New World.

When you need to imagine yourself as a homely, out-of-control simian to hide the fact that your bio pic is nothing but a collection of cliches — Daddy didn’t love me, I love drugs, let’s leave out most of my romances and avoid the word “bisexual” — you need a Tina/Elton/James Brown/Queen status song catalog to put butts in the seats. Williams doesn’t.

Trent-on-Stoke Robert might be big abroad, but he moved to LA and promptly sailed back to Britain because “Nobody cares” is a pretty hard thing to hide on the pop charts, or the box office.

As always, I’ll update these numbers as Saturday’s later day data and Sunday’s tallies are reported.