
Box office prognosticators typically under-estimate kids’ cartoons’ Saturday ticket sales.
And “Kung Fu Panda 4” is already outperforming expectations, with Deadline.com projecting a $55 million opening weekend, based on a robust $18 million+ Friday. Deadline and others’ Friday projections peaked at $52, but if they under-guessed Friday, figure they’ll do the same Sat.
The movie isn’t much. But with the tepid “Migration” the only animated offering for children these past two+ months, pent-up demand could push this latest Po picture closer to the record for this franchise — over $60 million, which is what the first film of the four earned way back in 2008.
Updated: I was correct. $58.3 millions the Sunday estimate.
“Dune 2” is doing quite well despite that, a nice “hold” and a $46 million+ weekend is projected, based on Friday’s numbers. Remember, the first “Dune” opened at over $82 million. It’s got great reviews and word of mouth, and the only limitation might be not everybody’s into sci-fi epics with worms and Chalamets and what not.
Lionsgate’s under-publicized “Imaginary,” the scary Teddy Bear pic, is slated to do only $10 million, on the low end of most horror openings (preview it for more critics and maybe there’s more attention drawn to it, kids).
“Cabrini,” Angel Studios’ bio-pic of the first American Catholic saint (born and raised and became a nun in Italy) is getting off to a very good start, perhaps earning as much as $7.5million on its opening weekend. Earlier projections suggested $10 million was within reach. Catholicism’s not the draw it once was in the U.S. The estimates gave fallen all weekend.
“Bob Marley: One Love” will remain in the top five, and be on the cusp of $90 million by midnight Sunday. Anything close to $5 million will get it over that hump. With its digital release coming March 19, this most watchable, emotional mixed-bag of a bio-pic has ten days to make that last $10 million at the theatrical box office to qualify as the first $100 million sleeper hit of 2024.
Final figures courtesy @boxofficepro

