One of the 231 arguments I got into on the outrage engine formerly known as “Twitter” Friday was in interpreting the $3 million or so that Universal’s hyped-all-to-heck “The Fall Guy” earned on its opening night.

“Soooo, good not great” I says, to which a wet-behind-the-ears wag countered with “No, that’s actually very good for a Thursday night preview.” The dear.

I posted a link that showed what REAL blockbusters have typically done, before and after COVID, and noted “You are incorrect” to junior box office interpreter.

A $3.15 million Thursday was probably met with genuine alarm at Universal. A high concept reboot starring the dizzyingly popular (or so we thought) Ryan Gosling, a big budget ($130 million?)  built-to-be-a-blockbuster co-starring Emily Blunt, big laughs, big explosions, big stunts? Surely this would open over $40, maybe $50 million?

No. Deadline.com reports that Friday was more underwhelming news for the latest from “Bullet Train” director David Leitch. Now $28 million is the projected take. Ouch. If A24 had rounded up that much cash for their far cheaper “Civil War,” they’d be popping champagne to this day. It earned $26 million on opening. But this is The Big U — Universal — a BIG pic on a LOT more screens, etc.

So consider…”swooned over” at the Fanboy/fangirl confab known as SXSW is not a guarantee of wide public acceptance. Fans at film festivals are susceptible to group think on a grand scale. I know. I’ve fallen into that at Toronto, New York, etc. The early reviews of “Fall Guy”  seemed over the top, until a larger sample of critics (moi, for instance) got around to seeing it.

The picture’s hype may have gotten out of hand. Maybe people feel they’ve already “seen” the movie thanks to the clips, trailers and Gosling and Blunt press appearances. Stuntmen faking out and out-fighting villains? “FX” is a dated titled, as are “The Stunt Man” and “Hooper” and other variations on that theme. But they’re in the collective memory.

“The Fall Guy” TV show skewed old, even when it was new in the ’80s. There’s been no afterlife for it on TV. Recent generations have no recollection/connection to it.

And maybe David Leitch, a stuntman turned producer and director, as perfect as he was for this material, wasn’t the guy to make this THE popcorn pic of the early summer.

“Bullet Train” and “Fast and Furious Present: Hobbs & Shaw,” “Deadpool 2” and “Atomic Blonde” are his big previous credits. Anybody thrilled to bits over anything other than “Ryan Reynolds” in any of those titles? Still talking up those movies? No.

I found “The Fall Guy” to be something considerably short of that “out of body experience” you want your big popcorn pic to be, and so it is. Lurching pacing, meandering narrative, Blunt seemingly immune to the charms of Mr. Gosling, obvious “stunt-men” performing Gosling’s stunts, lots of quibbles emerged watching it. There are attempts at representation mixed-in with all the macho stunt-man’s-code content. This should be reaching a wider audience, or so you’d think.

And then there’s the news that this weekend’s horror underwhelmer –– “Tarot” — could be pointing to a wider problem. Sure, the people who have reviewed it (Why bother?) panned it. But horror used to be critic proof, and no horror movie this year, from franchise reboots like “The First Omen” to Sydney Sweeney not wearing a bikini as a nun in “Immaculate” to the very amusing and bloody “Abigail” has made bank.

Horror used to open routinely in the $18-25 million range, $-12 even right after COVID. “Tarot” will barely clear $6 million. Has the horror audience “outgrown” the genre? Has the big screen audience in general slipped back into its post-COVID malaise?

This weekend is full of evil box office portents for the post-strike summer cinema to come.

The second weekend of “Challengers” will clear $8.5-9 million, pretty good, showing what a movie with larger female appeal and more modest intent can manage. It will be over $30 million by Monday or Tuesday of next week.

Re-releasing “Star Wars: The Phantom Menace,” the “episode one” prequel from a long time ago, in a galaxy pre-Luke Skywalker, has paid off by rolling up $8-8.5.

“Godzilla x King: A New Empire” is coming in at fifth for the weekend (after “Tarot”), with another $3-4 million taking it closer to the coveted $200 million mark, domestic take. At $187 million, it may not have the screens to get there once the next “Planet of the Apes” opens in a few days.

UPDATED figures from Box Office Pro…