For the 96th time, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences is about to announce the field for their upcoming Academy Awards. We’ll learn about them online, on Youtube, or via the old-fashioned ABC “Good Morning America” way (That’s still on?), and then the hand-wringing will begin.

Who’s in? Who’s out? What is the overall tone and “message” of the 2024 Academy Awards to be, thanks to the sorts of films and performances this elite group honors?

It’s not the old white boy’s club it used to be, and “sentimental favorites” don’t hold the weight that they did for much of the history of this honor.

The favorites have been established by some earlier awards — the Producers, Directors, Screen Writers, Actors and so on down the line Guilds. But the impact of the Golden Globes has been muted and the Critics Choice Awards may not have wholly supplanted that in terms of “predictors.” The real role of all these “earlier” awards handed-out is narrowing the field.

You figure “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things,” “Maestro” and “Past Lives” and “Barbie” and “The Holdovers” are set up as favorites, with a lot of movies — from “Killers of the Flower Moon” to “American Fiction” and “Rustin” and “May December” and “The Color Purple” and “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Saltburn” (Seriously?) facing the possibility of delivering “snubs.”

We ponder the possible “sleepers” over morning cocoa — “Nyad” and “Origin” and “All of Us Strangers,” “The Book of Clarence,” “The Zone of Interest,” Nicolas Cage in “Dream Scenario,” Annette Bening in “Nyad,” Greta Lee in “Past Lives.”

Movies like “Anatomy of a Fall,” which wasn’t even France’s pick as Best International Feature” nominee, are harder to handicap because the cast is mostly unfamiliar to North Americans audiences.

Speaking of “Best International Feature,” I’d love to see Egypt FINALLY get a nomination (“Voy! Voy! Voy!”), but Germany’s “The Teachers Lounge” shouldn’t be left out, nor should Hungary’s “Four Souls of the Coyote.” Ukraine’s “Photophobia” and Greece’s “Behind the Haystacks” send Hollywood-endorsed messages. Denmark’s “The Promised Land” is more old-fashioned, but quite worthy, too.

That may be the one Oscar category that I pay the most attention to, because a lot of these worthies won’t even merit a North American release if they don’t score a nomination. Mads Mikkelen’s presence in “Promised Land” ensures that one will come out in February, regardless. But the rest?

Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) and Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) appear to be locks for nominations. Was Emily Blunt’s part in “Oppenheimer” big enough?

Somebody in a list that includes Blunt, Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”), Claire Foy and Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”), Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”), Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”), Margot Robbie (“Barbie”), Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”), Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) or Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple,” “Rustin”) and Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things” is going to be on the outside looking in.

Has Bradley Cooper talked or been elbowed out of one of his potential nominations for “Maestro?” A lot of the coverage of him has been pushback — starting with the controversy over him donning a fake nose to play Leonard Bernstein. Will that hurt Carey Mulligan’s chances?

Everybody has somebody they’ve “talked up” in an effort to will a personal favorite into the mix. I’d love to see Dafoe get recognized. Not nominating Domingo for his two dazzling end-of-years turns would be almost unforgivable. David Oyelowo has zero buzz for playing St. John the Baptist in “Book of Clarence,” even though he hilariously steals that movie, which has zero buzz in ANY category.

I love Martin Scorsese, but I don’t think “Killers of the Flower Moon” is one of his best. It’s high minded, but so are “Origin” and “The Book of Clarence” and “American Fiction.” Nominations for the venerated Scorsese, the much-honored DeNiro in his best role in years, and especially Oscar winner DiCaprio in a broad, antiheroic turn seem “wasted” and should go to somebody less famous but better in a better picture, and perhaps somebody who’s just “due.”

“Best directors direct best pictures,” the old adage goes. And a lot of directors will be left standing in the cold, their “best picture” contenders nominated as they are not. It won’t be Christopher Nolan or Greta Gerwig or probably Alexander Payne. Is anybody else that much of a sure thing? I found
Blitz Bazawule’s direction of “The Color Purple” musical dazzling.

Of course, one of the things online readers flock to by 9am today is a list of “Who got snubbed?” So that’s the purpose of laundry-listing everyone most everybody figures has at least a shot. Those who miss out at least have the consolation that “snubs” for nominations won’t be remembered forever, any more that Oscar “losers” will be so-labeled for more than a few days after the Jimmy Kimmel (ugh) hosted ceremony on the evening of March 10.